Farmers should brace for a brief dry spell next week as rainfall temporarily eases across Kenya, the Meteorological Department has warned.
Acting Director Edward Muriuki said this pause is linked to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a tropical system that reduces cloud formation and rainfall when in an unfavourable phase.
“Rainfall is likely to be enhanced over much of the country during the first half of March. Dry spells are expected in the second half when the MJO enters an unfavourable phase,” Muriuki explained.
Despite this short break, rains are expected to return by the end of March, with April marking the peak of the long rains season.
Some areas, including the highlands west of the Rift Valley, central Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, and the Coastal region, may experience extended rainfall well into June.
Meanwhile, northeastern counties such as Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo are forecast to receive near-average rainfall, with showers beginning in early March and intensifying in April.
Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average, particularly along the Coast and in northeastern Kenya. Global meteorological agencies are also monitoring the potential return of El Niño, which can trigger heavy rains across East Africa.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that the recent weak La Niña has faded, with ENSO neutral conditions expected for March–May 2026.
“The chance of El Niño increases steadily to around 40 per cent by May–July,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, noting that the last El Niño (2023–24) was among the five strongest on record and contributed to the 2024 global temperature spike.
WMO emphasized that seasonal forecasts are essential for planning in climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, health, energy, and water management, helping governments and communities avert economic losses and manage disaster risks effectively.
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